Stocks Analysis

S&P500: 1257.91 Short-Term Trend: sideways Outlook: One week ago I favored a long position if the 1267 level was taken out. That happened, but there was no follow through higher. Still, there is a chance that the index will rally in the first week of 2012 and will confirm the bullish breakout. A rally abv 1290/1300 is needed to confirm the presented wave count on the chart above. If however, the index fails below 1230, a faster move down may develop from the faile move up. The confidence is not big, but I slightly favor the bullish case as indicated in our strategy below. Strategy: Holding long from 1267 is favored. Stop=below 1230. Target=1400.

Nasdaq 100: 2237.87 Short-Term Trend: sideways Outlook: The daily chart remains dead neutral as the prices remain between the most recent extremes (2400 on the upside, and 2150 on the downside). The most logical choice for the wave structure is shown on the chart above. I think a Contracting Triangle since the July 2011 top has been under way. The hourly chart shows the recent sell-off is not complete, so further weakness twd 2184 and possibly twd 2100 is expected. Then, another move higher will be seen if our interpretation is correct. Strategy: Stand aside.

Nasdaq 100: 2318.95 Short-Term Trend: sideways Outlook: Nasdaq was little changed as it traded sideways last week. First it tried to move higher, but the upside was limited (well below the key 2400/10 resistance level). Then, there was a decline on Wednesday and Thursday to 2278 but the market then recovered nicely on Friday. Overall, on the shorter-term time frames, this price action is constructive. But until we see a clear break on the 2400/10 resistance level, the daily chart is more neutral than anything. So, if you are more aggressive, you can try the long side here as the recent price action is bullish. But if you want to see a confirmation, then one should wait for a breakout to occur first. On the downside, the key level to watch is the late Nov low at 2150. Strategy: Stand aside.

Nasdaq 100: 2253.86 Short-Term Trend: sideways Outlook: Last week I favored a long position on a pullback against the 2285 level. Well, I was wrong. The market broke firmly below the 2285 level and the immediate focus shifted on the downside. While the count presented a week ago is still valid (and if the market rallies this week, it will become preffered again), the odds right now have shifted in favor of the more bearish scenario presented above. It is actually the count that I used in August in September before the big advance in October. It implies that the uptrend from the Mar 2009 low ended earlier this year in July. And since late July a Flat pattern is under way. If correct, we will soon see weakness to new lows below 2040. A decline below 2185 will virtually confirm this outlook. If the market manages to hold abv 2185 and then rallies back abv 2370, then the previous bullish count...

S&P500: 1238.19 Short-Term Trend: uptrend Outlook: Surprisingly S&P500 was much stronger than Nasdaq 100 last week. The market held well during the small pullbacks on Monday and Thursday and then rallied to new highs on Friday. Thus, it seems the bulls are in full control here and it is unlikely to see a deeper pullback twd 1150 level as we expected a week ago. As long as the 1190/80 area holds, the uptrend on the daily chart is considered strong and we should expect gains twd the 1304 level. On the downside, below 1190/80 will signal a deeper pullback twd 1150 is under way but even such a move will not negate our bullish idea here. Strategy: Longs can be favored for a mvoe twd 1300. A close stop is difficult to find right now

Nasdaq 100: 2161.38 Short-Term Trend: downtrend Outlook: While the outlook on the weekly chart is mixed at this stage (take a look at our Medium-Term Update), the daily chart is bearish. The prices are firmly below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages and these moving averages have already curled over the top and are expected to act as resistance levels for any rallies that can develop due to the current oversold conditions. So, I expect lower prices ahead. Near-Term, the market is attempting to rally but as long as it stays below its 2214 swing high and below the 2236 level, the bears are in cotrol. A decline below the 2035 wil confirm and will yield weaknesst wd 1962 level 1st... A week ago I recorded a video presentation about the most likely Medium-Term scenarios for the U.S. stock market. If you haven't watch it yet, you can do it here:

That was nothing short of a brutal earnings report from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and is worth of asking whether the prestigious investment bank has lost its luster on Wall Street. The New York-based investment bank reported earnings of $1.85 per share on $7.28 billion in revenues. Wall Street analysts had been expecting earnings of $2.27 per share on $8.14 billion in revenues. Expenses plunged during the quarter, dropping 23.3% as worries continue to persist that the bank will lay off employees to decrease headcount, as fixed income, currency and commodities trading revenue fell 53% to $1.6 billion. “During the second quarter, the operating environment was more difficult given global macro-economic concerns,” said Lloyd C. Blankfein, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “In addition, certain of our businesses had disappointing results as we reduced our market risk in response to attempting to manage fluctuations in prices and market liquidity. Despite these challenges, we continued to address our clients' needs through our strong global franchise...

Asian stocks fell today for the forth day as sentiment continues to deteriorate due to EU's credit woes and US's growth worries since the economy might face a downgrade if officials fail to come up with an agreement to increase their debt ceiling. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell by 0.2% to 134.77 at 14:30 in Tokyo. Nikkei 225 Nikkei 225 fell today by 0.85% or 84.75 points closing at 9889.72. From 225 shares, 55 advanced, 154 declined and 16 unchanged. Sectors leading the decline were the industrials that lost 27.99 points and consumer goods that lost 23.58 points. Lagging shares today were Fast Retailing Co Ltd which fell by 2.08% closing at 13160 yen, second was Fanuc Corp which fell by 1.42% closing at 13920 yen. And Canon Inc Corp which fell by 2.77% closing at 3680 yen. Among the shares that advanced Seven & I Holdings Co Ltd topped the list by rising 1.39% closing at 2264 yen, followed by Sumitomo Metal...

We upgrade our recommendation for Brightpoint Inc. (CELL) to Outperform based on our view that galloping demand for high-end smartphones and tablets throughout the world will drive the company's valuation level higher in the near future. We believe the negative consequences of the proposed merger between AT&T and T-Mobile USA are already reflected in the current valuation as it has plummeted nearly 39% in the last four months after this news surfaced. In the previous two quarters, Brightpoint managed record-high mobile devices. Most importantly, the majority of these wireless handsets were managed through the company's high-margin Logistic Services. Management reaffirmed a rosy picture for the rest of 2011. We believe the business fundamentals of Brightpoint remain intriguing. Newly won distribution agreements coupled with effective cost control strategies will pave the way for the company's future earnings growth. Our price target of $9.75, is based on 11.9x our fiscal 2011 earnings estimate, approaching the S&P 500 average.

Under Armour, Inc. (UA) has posted huge gains in the last year, recently hitting a new all-time high on a 21% earnings surprise. That and bullish estimates have this Zacks #1 Rank stock running with momentum. Company Description Under Armour, Inc. develops and sells a line of performance athletic apparel and footwear for men, woman and children primarily in the United States and Canada. The company was founded in 1996 and has a market cap of $4.03 billion. Under Armour has been a strong performer in 2011, recently hitting a new high after reporting solid Q1 results in late April that included a 21% earnings surprise. First-Quarter Results Revenue for the period was up 36% from last year to $313 million. Earnings also looked good, coming in at 23 cents, 21% ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the company has an average earnings surprise of 47% over the last four quarters. The company saw big gains from its direct-to-consumer channel, where sales were up 53%...